The further evolution of 'democracy, the best form of government' (under science) is inevitable. Completely unlike the consequences of thus-far 'unsustainable overpopulation' however -water or oil
running out for example, the article below presents a problem the only solution of which is the imposition of 'rationing' of a sort under an explicitly science-based reconstitution of society and government -with perhaps, at 'the far end', even
the limiting and subspeciation of society.
15 October 2010 Science Magazine
Filling the Light Pipe
David J. Richardson
It has been a landmark year for the field of optical telecommunications, with the award of the 2009 Nobel Prize to Charles Kao for his insight in the
mid-1960s that the future of communications lay in single-mode silica-based optical fibers (1) as well as the 50th anniversary of the first demonstration of the laser—both key technologies responsible for the development of the global-scale
communications networks of today (2). Recently, however, a growing realization has emerged within the telecommunications industry that the end of the phenomenal growth in optical fiber communication capacity is within sight. At this year's Optical Fiber
Communication Conference (OFC 2010), several groups reported results within a factor of ~2 of the ultimate capacity limits of existing optical fiber technology. Without radical innovation in our physical network infrastructure—that is, improvements in
the key physical properties of transmission fibers and the optical amplifiers that we rely on to transmit data over long distances—we face what has been widely referred to as a "capacity crunch" that could severely constrain future Internet growth, as
well as having social and political ramifications.
Most of the information we exchange over the Internet is carried through optical fibers encoded on a beam of laser light. Data traffic on the world's networks is growing at around 40% year-on-year (3). This growth is driven primarily by
social networking, cloud computing, and bandwidth-hungry video services such as YouTube. Video is responsible for most of the increased demand, and with high definition firmly established in the marketplace and both 3D and ultrahigh-definition formats
emerging, this trend is set to continue.
The data-carrying capacity of a single optical fiber is determined by the spectral bandwidth over which suitably low-loss signal transmission can be achieved and our technical ability to exploit this bandwidth through suitable data
coding and decoding schemes. The bandwidth of current fiber systems is limited to around 11 THz by the optical amplifiers used to boost the power of flagging signals attenuated by fiber transmission loss. Until relatively recently this bandwidth was
considered to be effectively infinite, and the primary issue was one of developing cost-effective means to keep pace with the increasing traffic demands. Key to this has been the development of a technique referred to as wavelength division multiplexing
(WDM) in which the bandwidth is occupied by multiple, independent and spectrally distinct wavelength channels each carrying encoded data.
[Figure 1 AND TEXT OMITTED]
Until recently, binary amplitude coding (turning the laser on and off to define "1" and "0" bits, respectively) was the preferred and only practical coding option—providing for SEs of less than 1 b/s/Hz and considerably much less in
most practical implementations. However, as a result of steady technological improvements, most notably in the speed and power of electronic digital signal processing (DSP), the use of (coherent) phase encoding has now become possible. Moreover, at the
same time, through advances in laser and filtering technologies, the individual WDM wavelength channels can now be packed more closely together without intolerable interference, providing a further boost to overall bandwidth utilization. These
developments have culminated in the flurry of impressive results at OFC 2010, which included demonstrations of a record 69.1 terabit/s data transmission over 240 km of fiber at a SE of 6.4 b/s/Hz (7), 64 terabit/s transmission over 320 km at a SE of 8.0
z (8), and finally, extending the distance, transmission of quadrature phase shift–keyed signals at 3 b/s/Hz over >10,600 km (9). These are staggering results and are within a factor of ~2 of the nonlinear Shannon limit for the current fiber technology,
and it is therefore hard to envisage substantial further improvements. Although it will take much effort to transfer these high-SE results over to commercial systems, it will provide welcome headroom for several years to come. However, in terms of
capacity scaling of existing fiber systems, the end is within sight. Once the capacity of conventional single-mode fiber-based systems is exhausted, the only option will be to add additional parallel systems, an option that is highly undesirable from a
cost and, ultimately, a power sustainability perspective.
Further innovation and breakthroughs in the basic fiber infrastructure are urgently required. Potential ways forward include the use of spatial division multiplexing, where N optical cores rather than one are incorporated within the
fiber to provide a factor of N increase in the data-carrying capacity; the development of broader-bandwidth amplifiers; reduction of fiber attenuation; and the mitigation of optical nonlinearity (either by reducing the nonlinearity of the transmission
fiber itself, or by introducing active electronic or optical means to compensate it). However, it should be stressed that while many ideas exist, improving upon the current technology will be extremely challenging and network operators will also need to
look increasingly at ways of reducing traffic—for example, by caching data locally throughout the network, because storing large amounts of data is far easier and cheaper than transmitting it over long distances. Perhaps adopting different charging m
odels for Internet use could also substantially affect traffic demands, and we may all increasingly need to get used to the idea that bandwidth (just like water and energy) is a valuable commodity to be used wisely.